PAPER Value Model
What has actually happened since the forecast
The forecast was fixed on 14 Oct 2026 and is not re-tuned. Every day the live numbers are laid against it, plus the model's own dated tests. The cases describe revenue after the launch rush fades (similar tokens took 1–9 months), so early readings run high; the dated tests are the sharper check.
Loading today's numbers…
What could PAPER be worth, and when?
Two things decide the value: how much of today's revenue survives once the launch rush fades, and what buyers pay for each $1 of yearly cash. Pick a case or tap any square. The chart and the numbers update together.
Rows: share of revenue kept. Columns: value ÷ yearly cash to holders. Every row and column is a real token. Squares show the forecast value per PAPER in Oct 2027.
All three cases side by side
Bar: value from Nov 2026 (right end) down to Oct 2027 (dot). It slides because losses keep creating new PAPER. Dashed lines: reference points, not forecasts. Log scale.
When does getting PAPER stop being worth it?
PAPER is only created when someone loses a trade. Each $1 lost earns fewer new PAPER as more exist. Once 1 PAPER costs more to get than it's worth, chasing it stops paying.
Key dates: when we'll know which case is real
What has to go right for the bull case?
The 9 traits Hyperliquid had. Every similar token that failed missed at least one. The 4 PAPER lacks are the ones that decide how much revenue stays.
How did similar tokens do?
Share of revenue still there after the launch rush
Latest 30 days of revenue ÷ the best 30 days around launch. Highlighted: the three picks used in the cases.
Are these results already in the value?
Does the strong launch and marketing raise the value?
Assumptions, method and sources
Change any assumption
How the math works
- Daily revenue today × share a similar token kept = future daily revenue.
- × 365 × share paid to stakers = yearly cash to stakers.
- × the multiple buyers paid for that similar token = value of all PAPER.
- ÷ PAPER that will exist by then = value per PAPER.
- Supply rule: 100 new PAPER per $1 lost until the pool reaches $2M, then fewer as more is created, heading toward about 12B.
- Farming stop line = cost to get $1 of loss ÷ value per PAPER. Below that many PAPER per $1, it costs more than it's worth.